Luxury Bus Conclusion in 2009 & Sales Trend in 2010 Ⅲ

www.chinabuses.org：

Conclusion:

1. Affected by the financial crisis, the overall sales volume of the buses is 2,431 units in the high-end bus market with the 4.07% up, the lowest growth in the recent years in 2009.

2. The top buses valuing over 131,000 USD have not yet been the mainstream of market development with only 1.5% or so in the total sales in 2009.

3. In 2009, it increases 1.56% in the products worthy 131-219 thousand USD, ranks the second in the growth (19 units more) and owns biggest market capacity. It increases 15.5% in the products worthy 219-293 thousand USD and owns the biggest growth (67units more) but limited market capacity.  It increases 1.3% in the products valuing over 293,000 USD with the smallest growth (9 units more) and the second biggest market capacity.

4. In the high-end bus market, it is rising for the products valuing over 131,000 USD in the recent 5 years due to the demand increasing influenced by the products development of the mainstream manufacturers such as Zhejiang Neoplan, Yutong, Higer, Kinglong and Huanghai in 13.7-meter luxury road bus and 18-meter large BRT luxury bus. It is possible that there are a few companies with the access to this market because of the market capacity. Currently, the corporations need to be cautious for this high-end market without enough brand influence and technical capability in terms of Zhejiang Neoplan,Yutong, Higer and Xi'an Silver Bus.

5. Zhejiang is the biggest region market for the high-end bus in 2009, then Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing. It mainly focuses on the developed regions such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian and Shanghai. The resources input and configuration should be considered in establishing the marketing strategy for the high class luxury bus manufacturers in 2009.

6. The high-end luxury bus markets first repress then develop and gradually turn better in 2009.

Basic Judgment to High-end Bus Valuing More than 131,000 USD  in 2010

The overall environmental analysis to 2010 bus markets: there are both advantage and disadvantage factors in high-end bus markets, and generally speaking, the advantages factors weight disadvantages ones.

A. Disadvantages factors:

a. Road transport company may still face difficulties. The qualification evaluation of domestic passenger Transport Company and national Ⅱ to national Ⅲ policy over drafted the market needs.

b. Excess transport capacity will continue in 2010. So passenger transport operators can profit less and less and cut-throat competition will be fiercer.

c. the competitions between road transport and railway will be fiercer. The clear advantages of railway attract more and more potential passengers, and the low price strategy will finally do evil to both the operator and bus industry.

d. The fuel oil tax add costs for high-end passenger transport, and the costs will at last transfer to the operators, which adds their potential risks of operations.

e. The macroeconomic control may influence bus industry, such as credit policy for buses, and it may also affect high-end buses.

f. Influences of the financial crisis is still on, the markets of high-end buses will still be restricted. Economy recovery needs a period of time, and there may be quite a number of unemployment staffs, and operations of high-end buses will certainly be affected.

B Advantages:

a. On the civil environments, reform of the economic system in all fields speed up, especially financial system and land administration reform which ensure implementations of the regulation policy of credits and lands. The tense conditions of transportations of coal, electricity and oil will be improved a lot.

b. Central government will strengthen infrastructure constructions including highway, and this will do good to high-end bus markets.

c. Tourism will continue to develop in 2010. It predicts that about 150,000,000 person-time will visit China in 2010, and overall tourism revenue can amount to about 139 billion USD. And this can inevitably raise enthusiasm of tourism companies and stimulate sales of high-end tourism buses.

d. Incomes of citizens will increase to some extent, and middle-income bracket consumption will become the main driving force in city commercial markets. Minimum wage standards and subsidies for unemployed staffs were raised in some areas. And wage structure of civil servants was adjusted, and this can drive wage-earning class to improve their incomes. And all these factors can promote sales of high-end road passenger transport.

e. Development of urban infrastructure constructer will accelerate in 2010, and this can pull increase of BRT needs in some cities. BRT in major cities is under development, although it's mainly government to invest BRT projects, it's still the development trend to beautify city image.

f. The needs for new energy public transport buses and large capacity city buses will increase in 2010. Development potential for new energy buses is rather large, and government advocate development of new energy buses, as fuel price is rising, so costs of new energy vehicles is preferable than conventional vehicles. New energy network covering the whole country is gradually forming and it provide guarantee to new energy vehicles. As improvement of new energy buses and it can support sales of high-end buses.

Sales Prediction:

The basic sales predictions of the high class bus market in 2010 are as followed:

1. Generally, it will be somehow rising without big change compared with 2008. It is estimated that the sales volume of the high-end buses worthy over 131,000 USD will be 2700-2800 units with 10～15% growth.

2. It is possible that the buses valuing 131-219 thousand USD will increase with the biggest sales volume, meanwhile, 219-293 thousand USD buses with about 15% up and over 293,000 USD buses with about 10% up.

3. As for the buses valuing over 131,000 USD, the 11～12-meter large road buses will be comparatively in smooth sales and the 13.7-meter road buses will go up about 10%.

4. The market capacity of the BRT over 13.7 meters long is 1500 units or so and the ones over 131,000 USD take 60 ～80%.