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Position:analyst > analysis > Analysis & Prediction of Bus Market in 2009 & 2010 (First Part I)

Analysis & Prediction of Bus Market in 2009 & 2010 (First Part I)

2010-01-18    Source:www.chinabuses.org
Summarize:

1. Survey of China Bus Market in Recently Years


In recently years, the sales volume of Chinese buses and coaches is up. In the year of 2008, the state emission standard upgraded from Euro II to Euro III and the upgrade has little impact about the sale. Besides, the global financial crisis slams the Chinese bus market very severely. Hence, the sales volume at last year reached 163618 units.

 

Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Sales Volume

116274

140336

167645

162298

163618

Growth

0.63

20.7

19.45

-3.19

0.81

 

 

Remark: The sales growth in the years of 2006 and 2007 reaches nearly 20 percent. In 2008, the state emission standard upgraded from Euro II to Euro III. The sales growth is negative. In 2009, the sale growth has a little bit increase. It shows that the state's policy, economic environment, market demand, etc can deeply affect the bus sale.

 

2. 
A. Analysis of Bus Sale for Length

 

 

11~12M

10~11M

9~10M

8~9M

7~8M

6~7M

2005

16.4

12.5

6.95

15.2

19.4

14.5

2006

14.6

13.3

7.4

14.9

20.1

15.2

2007

16.5

13.4

7.6

12.7

18.4

15.1

2008

19.1

14.5

7.9

12.9

18.03

14.5

2009

17.28

13.1

7.79

12.72

17.44

18.33

Average

16.78

13.36

7.53

13.68

18.67

15.53

 

 

B. Analysis of Sales Volume for Length

 

 

11~12M

10~11M

9~10M

8~9M

2005

19066

14543

8081

17710

2006

20479

18605

10330

20964

2007

27738

22390

12176

21265

2008

31017

23468

12876

20924

2009

28280

21419

12738

20807

 

7~8M

6~7M

Total

 

2005

22541

16860

116274

 

2006

28149

21278

140336

 

2007

30929

25379

167645

 

2008

29261

23482

162298

 

2009

28531

29991

163618

 

 

 

Remark: From the year of 2005 to 2009, the sales volume of the bus (length between 11-12m) is up. Compared the year's sale of 2008, the market performance at last year is weak. From the year of 2005 to 2009, the sales volume of 10~11m buses is in up trend. Compared the year's sale of 2008, the market performance at last year is weak also. The same cases occur in 9~10 bus. Please pay attention to the 6~7m bus, the sales volume has great increase in 2009 because the state's auto stimulus policy spurs the Chinese rural market demand. Good policy can propel its sale.

 

Editor:Frederick

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