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The Analysis and the Prediction of the Bus Market in 2010
1. The Analysis on Our Macroeconomic Environment in 2010:
Our economy will still increase steadily in 2010 with year-on-year growth of over 10% in GDP and about 3.5% in CPI. The related problems show as followed:
The economy growth structure is more imbalanced; the government investment extrudes the private investment; the strong inflation expectation; the severe surplus of the production capacity; the difficulties in choosing whether the relaxed policy is quitted. The proper relaxed policy was issued by our China after more than 30 years since the Reform and Open. The extreme relaxed in 2009 will return to the proper relaxed policy in 2010. It is certain that the quick reset of the currency supply will affect the price of the ordinary consumables and assets. Currently, the inflation shows in different forms. The relaxed currency policy in 2009 has unsustainability and it is expected that the Central Bank will increase the required reserve rate and interest with the general rising of the commodity price.
2. Analysis on Demand Growth and the Prediction:
It is predicted that the speed of the investment growth will be obviously lower because of these factors:
a. The investment demand and requirements are shrinking due to the further shrinking of the external demand.
b.The expected price of the real estate go down and the related investment growth possibly falls.
c. The demand and requirement of the investment of the real economy will be weak.
d. It is reasonable to properly slow down the investment speed due to the reducing of the new projects. However, it is possible that the potential of the rural-urban infrastructure construction will increase.
(1) The growth speed of the consumer demand slows down.
The Reasons:
a. The speed of the income growth affects the people's purchasing level. The average disposable income of the urban residents decreases 4.6 percent and the actual cash income growth reduces almost 5 percent compared with the previous year.
b. The residential and the expected income is not optimistic because of the severe employment.
c. It brings about the negative wealth effect with the reducing of the stock index as well as the real estate price, meanwhile, the consumption growth speed of the durable goods will possibly slow. The actual growth of the overall consumables sales amount is 12% while the nominal growth is 17% or so.
(2) The export growth will pick up slowly with the better net export achievement.
The pressure on our export is still heavy due to the American subprime lending crisis and the world slow economic growth in 2010. The export growth will pick up slowly because of the strong decline of the trade balance surplus in 2009. It is predicted that the export will increase 18%, import goes up 20% and the trade surplus is 300 billion USD with 2.3% up.
3. The Elementary Judgment of the Bus Market in 2010
(1) The overall sales volume of the buses will possibly grow 5～10% or so with possible 180 thousand units.
(2) The number of the buses will possibly increase because of the large-scale activities in some large cities, the national advocacy and the increasing demand of the many cities as the civil engineering.
①The new energy buses and big buses will go up with some amplitude with the expected market demand of about 6000 units in 2010. The development potential of the new energy buses is great, and our government advocates the promotion of the new energy buses. The operation cost is competitive in terms of the rising fuel price and the relevant network gradually generates in the nationwide. All these factors mentioned above accelerate the development of the new energy buses.
In addition, the growth rate of the large buses will be higher than the medium buses. The biggest demand shows in the 11～12-meter bus, then 10～11-meter bus. BTR will possibly go up than 2009 with the demand of 1500-2000 units.
② It is possible that 6～7-meter urban& rural passenger vehicle will be another growth point in the rural passenger transport market due to the policy as well as the market factors in 2010.
③ The export of buses will possibly suffer from the unfriendly eternal environment and probability of the world economy recession in 2010.
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