Analysis & Prediction of Bus Market in 2009 & 2010 (Third Part II)

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(3) The road buses possibly will retain the development condition in 2009 with the growth of about 5% and the general volume of 110-120 thousand units.

Disadvantages:

① The speeding-up of the train and the increasing of the bullet train make the high-quality customers’ source of bus transport reduce.

② The stations given up by the train transport also mean poor customers resources for the road transport.

③ The speeding-up of the train make the competition fiercer among the bus transport corporations.

④ The extension of the railway network is an important factor for the shrinking of the road bus market.

⑤ The enhancing of the threshold of the credits and the credit squeeze stop many poor owners with the purchasing intent.

⑥ The bus market suffers from the rising price of the fuel.

Advantages:

① The economy system reform speeds up, especially the reform of the finance system as well the land administration confirm the better implementation of the macrocontrol. The tense condition of the coal, power, fuel and transport will be released.

② With the national continuous investment in the construction of the rural roads since 2010, the 6-8m buses will possibly increase without the big amplitude because of the market condition and the consuming habits of the Chinese peasants.

③ The increasing of the highway with the expected 52,000 km will push the demand of the road buses, especially for the high class road buses.

④ Tourism makes further process in 2010 and the sales of the medium and high class buses will be affected. It is estimated that the number of the inbound tourists will reach 170 million with the foreign exchange income of over 31 billion USD, which greatly enhance the positivity of the tourist companies in purchasing buses.

⑤ It is possible that the income of the peasants and the urban residents will increase and the government will issue a series of policy to promote the domestic demand.