The Analysis of Bus Market Features in the first Quarter in 2010 Ⅰ

2010-05-14 Source：www.chinabuses.org

Summarize：

www.chinabuses.org: According to the statistics from Industry Development Center of Chinabuses.com, it pervasively turns on fast growing condition in the first quarter in 2010, compared with that in 2009. Major features are as followed:

The Biggest Jumps of Bus Sales in recent 5 years

The sales volume of buses is 21,000; 26,400; 31,600; 36,900; 24,300; 39,800 in the first quarter from 2005 to 2010 respectively.

Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
Sales Volume	21000	26400	31600	36900	24300	39800
Growth Rate		25.7	19.7	16.8	-34.1	63.8

Table 1: sales comparison of buses in the first quarter in the recent 5 years (Unit: Vehicle)

Chart 1: sales comparison of buses in the first quarter in the recent 5 years

Shown above, two outstanding points:

1. It grows strongly in single month in the first quarter.

Based on the year-on-year growth in a single month, it increases 90.75% in Jan., 70.75% in Feb., 31.18% in March 2010; 62.34% in June 2008 (affected by the transformation from Euro Ⅱ to Euro Ⅲ).

The accumulated sales of buses has year-on-year growth of 63.8% in the first quarter in 2010, a new record for sales in single quarter growth. It follows 37.01% in the second quarter in 2008 and 25.24% in the second quarter in 2006 (affected by public transport priority policy and export encouragement). The year-on-year growth no doubt refers to the gloomy market in the first quarter in 2009, however, the sales of 39,800 units has made new record, which marks a recovery of bus market.

2. Unbalanced growth

Among 23 sections in bus sales, there are 6 going down, in particular, almost 3 series of extra large-sized buses with negative growth. Three reasons for that:

a. The subway construction on is paid attention and no great passion in BRT in most cities.

b It requires comprehensive support equipments and more road resources for BRT.

c. The price and return are in direct proportion.

15 of 50 bus builders refer to extra large-sized buses, 7 companies grow and 8 companies fall. Details in table:

No.	Company	the first quarter, 2010	the first quarter,2009	Growth Rate	Growth
1	Yutong	55	105	-50	-47.62
2	Hengtong	34	3	31	1033.33
3	Young Man	29	107	-78	-72.9
4	Ankai	28	12	16	133.33
5	Nushen	22	8	14	175
6	Higer	14	30	-16	-53.33
7	Huanghai	11	37	-26	-70.27
8	Golden Dragon	11	0	11	-
9	North Neoplan	3	8	-5	-62.5
10	Kinglong	3	0	3	-
11	Zhongtong	1	6	-5	-83.33
12	Yaxing	1	0	1	-
13	Changlong	1	0	1	-
14	Zhongwei	0	2	-2	-100
15	Youyi	0	1	-1	-100
	Total	213	319	-106	-33.23

Table 2: Analysis of market concentration of extra large-sized buses in the first quarter (Unit: Vehicle)

Chart 2: Analysis of market concentration of extra large-sized buses in the first quarter

Mainstream Bus Builders Grow Fast and Promotes the Whole Bus Industry

In the first quarter, 39 companies own the accumulated positive sales growth, particularly, 10 with growing rate over 100%, 23 with over 60% in total 50 bus builders. Top 15 companies show as followed in sales:

No.	Company	the first quarter,2010	the first quarter,2009	Growth Volume	Growth
1	Yutong	7014	3796	3218	84.77
2	Kinglong	4386	1956	2430	124.23
3	Higer	4185	2431	1754	72.15
4	Golden Dragon	4246	2611	1635	62.62
5	JAC	1220	428	792	185.05
6	Sunwin	1044	329	715	217.33
7	Zhongtong	1686	1037	649	62.58
8	Ankai	916	281	635	225.98
9	Young Man	917	465	452	97.2
10	Youyi	739	300	439	146.33
11	Dongte	1190	756	434	57.41
12	Foton	678	301	377	125.25
13	Quick	771	400	371	92.75
14	Sunlong	676	365	311	85.21
15	Shaolin	1510	1221	289	23.67

Table 3: analysis of market concentration of domestic bus companies in the first quarter (Unit: Vehicle)

Chart 3: analysis of market concentration of domestic bus companies in the first quarter

The sales growth volume of Yutong, Kinglong, Higer and Golden Dragon exceed 1,500 units, and the related growth range of 37.25 percentage contributes a lot to the total growth rate of 64.17% in the whole industry. Therefore, it is an important characteristic that mainstream bus builders show crucial role for the industry in the first quarter. Two obvious points for that:

1. Balanced development

The development of bus market is usually unbalanced but the prosperity of mainstream bus builders affect the industry. In recent two years, the bus sales lack of big leap, which directly influenced by the different performance of mainstream bus builders. However, the average growth range of these four companies comes to 83.72%, far higher than the industry level.

2. Double Growth for large-sized buses

Based on the year-on-year growth, the large-sized buses own the biggest increasing range. Shown in Table 4, the average growth rate reaches 116.73%, more 33.43percentage than industry level for these 4 companies. Particularly, Higer grows 293.41%, 3.5 times more than industrial average range. It indicated the structure change of market demand is still to be expected due to such big increasing.

Company	Sales Volume	Large	Medium	Light
Yutong	7014	3092	3367	555
Kinglong	4386	1214	1268	1904
Golden Dragon	4246	797	660	2789
Higer	4185	1672	2049	464
Total	19831	6775	7344	5712
Industry	39828	13271	14663	11894

Company	Sales Volume	Large	Medium	Light
Yutong	3218	1578	1591	49
Kinglong	2430	347	512	1571
Golden Dragon	1635	477	268	890
Higer	1754	1247	476	31
Total	9037	3649	2847	2541
Industry	15568	6031	5613	3924

Company	Sales Volume	Large	Medium	Light
Yutong	84.77	104.23	89.58	9.68
Kinglong	124.23	40.02	67.72	471.77
Golden Dragon	62.62	149.06	68.37	46.87
Higer	72.15	293.41	30.26	7.16
Total	83.72	116.73	63.31	80.13
Industry	64.17	83.3	62.02	49.23