Market Analysis on Luxurious Coaches in the First 10 Months of 2011 Ⅲ

www.chinabuses.org:

Part four: The sales of luxurious coaches market valuing over RMB 0.9 million in the first 10 months of 2011 appeared in positive growth but the speed of the sales growth is obviously slowing down which due to the following factors—the factors of the rail way transportation: incident of High Speed Rail, large-scale slowdown of motor train unit and cooling of railway passenger transportation; the factors of the coach market: the high speed growth of super-huge type coaches, the high growth of the luxurious coaches export. What is more, the tightening of Chinese national monetary policy and the new energy coaches is not so popular as before that are two of the most important reasons to slow down the sales growth of the luxurious coaches.

1. Comparative analysis of sales growth of luxurious coaches valuing over RMB 0.9 million in the first 10 months of 2011 and 2010

① It is seen that the above the factors of the rail way transportation brought the coach enterprise and the passenger transportation enterprise a good development opportunity especially the luxurious coaches that have directly competitive relation with the motor train unit. In the recent 10 years, the railway transportation accelerated its speed for seven times which influenced the luxurious coach transportation quite profoundly. It had a directly impact on the luxurious coaches long distance transportation when the railway transportation started its one hour, two hours, three hours transportation. Take the inter-city railway between Beijing and Tianjing as an example, when it was opened, the original lines of luxurious coaches have been changed. But now the current situation has changed, as the incident of High Speed Rail cool the railway passenger transportation and now the high-end highway passenger transport business operator see the trend, therefore the purchase of the luxurious coaches is increasing which undoubtedly pushes the sales and development of the first 10 months of 2011.

② The direct reason for the luxurious coaches growth is the rapid sale growth of super-large coaches in the first 10 months.

Table 8 Sales statistics of super-large coaches in the first 10 months of 2011

From above data, it was seen that

The overall growth of the super-large buses is 95.5%, 80.0% higher than the coach industry growth rate which is 14.0%. Only the sales of the super-large intercity coaches and city buses in the first 10 months of 2011 are respectively 128 units and 972 units more than the sales of that in 2010. Among the super-large coaches, the price of the intercity coaches is always above RMB 0.9 million, so some of the city buses’ price. That is why the positive increase the sales of luxurious coaches valuing above RMB 0.9 million in the first 10 months of 2011.

③ The great sales growth of the export luxurious coaches is the main power that  the sales growth of luxurious coaches in the first 10 months of 2011. The statistic of the export luxurious coaches in the first 10 months of 2011 shows that the sales of large coaches reaches nearly 10,000 units with the growth rate 95%, which is 4,500 units more than that of 2010. And its export total amount reaches RMB 4.901 billion which increases by 81% of the sales of the first 10 months in 2010. But among the nearly 10,000 units of large coaches, the luxurious coaches valuing over RMB 0.9 million nearly accounts for 4.2% which is 100 units more than the sales of the first 10 months of 2010 and it is the important motive force of the sales growth of the luxurious coaches valuing over RMB 0.9 million in the first 10 months of 2011.

① In the end of the 2010, China have made 2011 Fiscal and Monetary Policy that was to tight monetary and recycle the excessive flow money. The series policies from Chinese government control the capital of commercial bank which raised the threshold of the commercial bank loans. As for the high price of the luxurious coaches, it affected the target customers’ financing channels and also reduces their purchase capacity towards the luxurious coaches and slowed down the growth of the luxurious coaches.

2. Comparative analysis of luxurious coaches’ sales growth slowdown in the first 10 months of 2011 and 2010

② The sales growth slowdown or even negative sales growth of the new energy coaches is one main factor that effect the sales growth slowdown of the luxurious coaches.

Table 9 Sales statistics of new energy coaches in the first of 10 months 2011

Chart 5 Sales statistics of new energy coaches in the first of 10 months 2011

From above data, it was seen that

The sales growth of new energy coaches were decreased by 1.44% in the first 10 month. Among the reducing sales of the new energy coaches, the biggest one is the pure electric coaches valuing over RMB 0.9 million which also directly effects the slowdown sales of luxurious coaches valuing over RMB 0.9 million reducing.