Electric vehicle Sector Sees Good Chances
2008-12-02 Source：english.chinabuses.com
Summarize："It is the best time for the development of electric cars in automobile industry." A research report of a consulting and research institution of McKinsey & Company concludes.
The report indicates ...
"It is the best time for the development of electric cars in automobile industry." A research report of a consulting and research institution of McKinsey & Company concludes.
The report indicates that when energy cost keeps high and consumers and governments think more of environmental protection, global auto makers are investing more to the development of alternate fuel HEV technology, which can reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions greatly. Many people paid attention to auto makers in Japan and U.S. and their progress in HEV technology.
When media highlight mature market, China is laying a solid foundation with efforts. Presently, China has become the second largest automobile market in the world, which is predicted to surpass America in 2030 and rank first. If China's auto industry develops at the present rate of 12 percent per year, in the future 25 years, and 270 million sets of new cars will appear in China. Till 2030, the passenger vehicle will amount to 287 million sets in total, taking up around 30 percent of the volume of automobile worldwide. Industry experts believe that such a huge auto amount will be a large pressure on energy resources and environment, so China needs to adopt newer fuel saving and environment-friendly technology.
Researchers made a worldwide study on some alternate fuel HEV technologies, and compared HEV with traditional ICE in several aspects, including the comprehensive cost of automobile purchase and maintenance, space to lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the saving level of imported fuel. Among alternate fuel vehicles made by Chinese auto manufacturers (in terms of electric vehicles, they include rechargeable HEV; compact natural gas vehicle and improved gasoline or diesel internal combustion engine based vehicle), electric vehicles come to the fore because it can solve some key problems all-roundly like cost and energy resource consumption.
China's auto parts and accessories suppliers will also benefit from the prosperity of the electric vehicle production. Demands for important parts and accessories are on the rise, including battery, electric engine, dynamotor, and non-impetus parts like air conditioner. It's estimated that suppose the penetration of electric cars is 20 percent to 30 percent, and the average cost of a battery is RMB30,000 to 50,000 yuan, then the Chinese electric vehicle battery market scale will reach RMB15 billion to 40 billion yuan till 2030. Some Chinese companies have become active participator in the global supply chain of electric vehicle battery.
Electric vehicles will also bring opportunities for software developers. Electric cars need to be installed with electric interface, which provides drivers with important data about automobiles, including usage condition of fuel battery, the refreshing situation per second of GPS, etc. Though fuel battery and other relevant technologies have broad future in terms of reducing CO2 emission substantially, their commercialized application is yet to come. It's true that investment to electric vehicles doesn't mean stopping research on other new energy resource technologies. In fact, electric car is regarded as a short-term solution, while other technologies like fuel battery etc. are regarding as long-term solution, because once the above-said technologies are feasible for commercialization, they will bring large amount of profit to us.
In terms of fuel consumption reduction, electric vehicle production has a substantial advantage compared with other technologies. Other technologies promise to reduce the gasoline consumption by 41 percent to 56 percent per set, but electric vehicles can reduce the gasoline consumption by 100 percent. Due to the challenge in the front, governments will play a key role in the course of changing electric vehicles from a conception to a reality.
China is always actively promoting the development of electric vehicle industry by providing R&D appropriation for research institutes and industrial enterprises, and promoting electric vehicles and recharging devices in some pilot cities. The Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) is vigorously encouraging the development of alternate engine technology. MOST has announced a program recently that 10,000 sets of HEVs, electric and fuel battery vehicles will be deployed in Chinese ten cities till 2010.
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